Thursday, July 24, 2008

The Great Trade Debate

It's that time of the baseball season when one thing is on everyone's mind - the trading deadline. As the trading deadline fast approaches teams scramble to make that deal that will seal the future of their club. For those in contention, it means that it is time to find that missing piece to complete your team and make that run for a World Series. For those out of contention, it is time to shed some payroll and some aging veterans or free agents you can't sign in return for some hot prospects you hope will create a brighter future for your team.

The names being bandied about are similar to those in the past Mark Texeira, Brian Fuentes, and half the Pittsburgh Pirates have all been rumored to be on the move. Either the Red Sox or Yankees (or both) are tied to every big name deal that could go down. Who's got the best available piece? Does he fit? And most importantly, what do they want in return?

The debate is shuffled out every year as to whether these fire sale deals are worth it. Does a team really ever find that piece and what is the cost? The infamous Jeff Bagwell deal from the 80's is often pointed to as what happens when you don't take stock of what you have on the farm before trading it for a short-term solution that may not even work.

The Red Sox have historically made deals on both sides of the fence. The Derek Lowe-Jason Varitek for Heathcliff Slocomb deal paid off big for them as both men were key to the winning of the 2004 World Series and Varitek has anchored that battery for years. Then there was the deal last year for Eric Gagne which was an absolute disaster as David Murphy has turned into an everyday outfielder for Texas and the minor leaguer they traded has shown great promise in the farm system. The Red Sox need to be wary of doing any quick fix deal this year.

There is no denying that they have a desperate need for relief pitching. Getting to Jonathan Papelbon has been a chore all season and the bullpen has lost many the winnable game. Both Okajima and Hansen have routinely been having trouble finding the plate and getting anybody out in high pressure situations. At times, Manny Delcarmen looks like the ideal set up man and then at other times he looks like a AA pitcher getting hit all over the yard. The problem is that everybody else sees this deficiency and it drives up the price to obtain any kind of help.

Brian Fuentes from Colorado has been the name most associated with a deal for the Red Sox at this time. The Yankees are in the picture as well. But knowing the attitudes in Boston and New York and knowing how desperate both teams are for relief, Colorado is reportedly asking for a front line starting pitching prospect in return (Bucholtz or Kennedy). This is a price too high to pay for a man who says he only wants to go somewhere that he will be a closer. Neither the Yanks or Sox are in need of a closer. They both need reliable late inning relief. Feuntes is good but I don't think he is good enough to warrant letting go of a front line prospect.

It all comes down to getting back what you dish out. If the Sox were to trade a guy like Bucholtz, they should get something more than a one or two year specialist pitcher who will be unsatisfied with his role in the team. They tried that before. His name was Eric Gagne and everyone in baseball saw how that turned out. They need a return that is equal to what they are giving up.

This team has worked its way to one of the best records in baseball despite many injuries throughout the line up. They may not even need to make a trade. Masterson has proved that he can pitch at the major league level. When Aardsma comes back off the disabled list, that should spell the end of line for Hansen. And they have instantly improved the depth and quality of the bullpen. Hansen fails to get anybody out. In the game last night I could have predicted the loading of the bases. Even the 3-0 pitch to Vidro was nowhere near the target set up by Varitek. He was fortunate to get the out and the fact that he got a save for that performance is a joke.

Any move they make should be something small. Getting a man like Damaso Marte would be a better fit than Fuentes. He would provide much needed left handed support out of the pen that has been lacking with Okajima's struggles this year. And he is good enough to face more than just left handed hitters. Add to that the fact that the Pirates are likely not looking at quite as a high a price tag for a non-closing reliever as the Rockies are. The Pirates also have a lot more pieces to deal with the likelihood of Jack Wilson and/or Jason Bay moving by the deadline as well.

In the end, its all about return. Everyone wants to be on the Lowe/Varitek end of the deal in July and not the Larry Anderson end of the deal. For the sake of the future if not this season, Red Sox Nation hopes they make the right choice.

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